Health Sector Modelling
Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is about ‘stress testing’ plans and strategies; helping to answer the question of whether or not they will survive under a set of plausible futures. ‘What if’ growth in patient numbers is higher, or lower, than planned? What if the effectiveness of some initiatives is greater or less than expected? What if a new direction or set of targets is imposed by the Minister, or Ministry?
These are all important issues that any plan, if it is to be realistic, must address. Exploring ‘what if’ type questions is an important aspect of robust planning which purely qualitative planning is unable to address. Developing dynamic simulation models provides a process to test the rigour and strength of the assumptions and recommendations in the plan; assessing the likelihood that what is planned will in fact occur under a range of plausible scenarios.